Retail sales fell by 7.6% in the first two months of 2026

In the first two months of 2026, retail sales recorded a significant decrease of 7.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, according to data provided by the National Institute of Statistics.

This decrease was driven by declines in non-food products (-8.8%), fuels (-3.8%), and food, beverages, and tobacco (-1.7%). Compared to the previous month, sales increased marginally by 0.2% in February, but there is still an annual decrease of 6.2%.

BCR forecasts a slight acceleration in retail sales growth in 2026, but private consumption will remain low, considering that real wages will continue to be negative in the first half of the year.

Consumer confidence dropped to -32.0 in March, and sentiment in retail trade fell sharply to -4.3.

The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.0%, and real wages decreased by 5.5% in January due to high inflation.

Expectations regarding labor market employment have significantly decreased, and fears about unemployment have risen, reaching the highest level since December 2020.