The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased by 7 points in June, but recession risks persist.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in June by 7 points, reaching 37.5 points, due to an improvement in the perception of the fiscal situation and a calmer external context. However, this level remains associated with a high risk of recession, with analysts estimating an economic growth of only 0.1% for the current year.

Adrian Codirlașu, the president of CFA Romania, emphasized that although progress has been made in reducing the budget deficit and stabilizing the external situation, the confidence indicator still reflects a general caution. The current conditions indicator increased by 5.4 points, and expectations advanced by 7.8 points, but both remain at low levels. Additionally, inflation is expected to remain high, with an anticipated average of 7.63% for July 2027.

Analysts predict a depreciation of the leu and stagnation in housing prices, with most considering them overvalued.

Furthermore, the price of Brent oil is estimated at 85 dollars per barrel over the next 12 months.

The CFA Romania survey, conducted monthly, tracks economic expectations for the next 12 months.