Consumers in the euro area expect lower inflation in the coming year, but families with low incomes remain more pessimistic.

The data published by the ECB shows a relaxation of short-term pressure in consumer perception, without a complete return to comfortable levels. Expected inflation for the next year has dropped by 0.5 percentage points in a single month, from 4.0% to 3.5%, but remains above the ECB's target of 2% and above levels observed before the recent price shocks.

The perception of already experienced inflation remains at 4.0%. This difference between perceived inflation and expected inflation shows that households see a possible slowdown in price increases, but do not believe that price pressure has disappeared. For many families, the level of prices remains high even if the rate of increase is moderating.

Long-term expectations have remained stable. Consumers estimate inflation of 2.9% over the next three years and 2.4% over five years. The stability of these figures matters for monetary policy, as the central bank monitors not only current inflation but also how the population expects prices to evolve in the future.

The survey shows clear social differences. Respondents from lower income quintiles continued to report, on average, higher perceptions and expectations of inflation than those from higher income quintiles. This difference may reflect the structure of spending: low-income households allocate a larger portion of their budget to food, energy, rent, or other basic expenses, where price increases are felt immediately.

Differences also appear between generations. Younger respondents, aged between 18 and 34, continued to report lower perceptions and expectations of inflation than individuals in the 35-54 and 55-70 age groups.

At the same time, uncertainty regarding expected inflation for the next 12 months has decreased but remains above the level before the onset of the war in the Middle East. This uncertainty shows that the population still does not have a stable picture of the direction of prices, even if the median forecast has been reduced.

The ECB survey also captures the situation regarding income and spending. Consumers expect nominal incomes to grow by 1.0% over the next 12 months, compared to 0.8% in April. The growth is modest and remains below expected inflation, which may mean continued pressure on purchasing power.

Perceived spending over the last 12 months has increased to 5.4%, up from 5.3% in April. However, for the next year, consumers estimate an increase in spending of 3.8%, down from 4.3%. This reduction may indicate greater caution in consumption or the expectation of a moderation in price increases.

The ECB notes that respondents from the first three income quintiles anticipate a slightly higher increase in spending than those from the two upper quintiles. For low-income households, basic spending leaves less room for quick adjustments when prices rise.

Expectations regarding the economy have improved slightly but remain negative. Consumers estimate that the euro area economy will decline by 1.7% over the next 12 months, compared to an expected decline of 2.2% in April. Even though pessimism has decreased, the population does not anticipate any economic growth yet.

In the labor market, consumers expect an unemployment rate of 11.3% over 12 months, a slight increase from 11.2% in April. The ECB states that low-income households expect the highest unemployment rate, 13.7%, while high-income households estimate the lowest rate, 9.5%.

Consumers perceive the current unemployment rate at 10.7%, and the expectation for the next year is just slightly higher. This difference suggests a relatively stable outlook on the labor market, without eliminating concerns about income and living costs.

In the housing market, consumers estimate that the price of their own home will increase by 3.6% over the next 12 months, down from 3.7% in April. Households in the lowest income quintile estimate an increase of 4.1%, above the 3.4% reported by households in the highest income quintile.

Expectations regarding mortgage rates have remained unchanged at 4.9%. Income differences persist here as well: low-income households expect mortgage rates of 5.6% over 12 months, while high-income households expect 4.4%.

Access to credit has tightened in the perception of households. The net percentage of those who reported a tightening of access to credit in the last 12 months has increased again in May and reached the highest level since February 2024. In contrast, the net percentage of those who expect stricter lending conditions in the next 12 months has decreased.

The survey was conducted between May 7 and June 1, 2026, covering approximately 19,000 adult consumers from 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, and Finland. The results do not represent the views of decision-makers or ECB staff but are used for monetary policy analysis and complement other data sources monitored by the central bank.

https://2eu.brussels/ro/stiri/consumatorii-din-zona-euro-se-asteapta-la-inflatie-mai-mica-in-urmatorul-an-dar-familiile-cu-venituri-reduse-raman-mai-pesimiste