Russia and Ukraine halve wheat exports / Black Sea attacks worsen the global food crisis

Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine are expected to fall to approximately half their level from last year during July–September, amid attacks on ports and commercial vessels in the Black Sea. The estimate comes from agricultural consultancy SovEcon and was cited by Bloomberg.

Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat trade, while the blockade of major maritime routes has pushed prices to their highest levels in three years. Transport and war-risk insurance costs have risen, as importers in Africa, Asia and the Middle East seek alternative sources, including Romania, France, Argentina and Australia.

Ukrainian ports in the Odesa region, which normally handle around 90% of the country’s grain exports, have been repeatedly attacked. In the first 11 days of August, only seven vessels entered these ports, compared with 169 in July.

Ukraine faces the risk of exhausting its storage capacity by early November, while agricultural-sector losses could reach $500 million per month. Overland routes, the Danube and the port of Constanța cannot replace maritime transport. Egypt, one of the largest importers, has reserves until February, but pressure on prices and bakeries is increasing. Turkey is trying to negotiate a new agreement on grain shipments, with no concrete results so far.