Colonel Pawel Szota, head of the Polish foreign intelligence service, stated that Poland perceives an increasing risk of provocations from Russia on NATO's eastern flank. In an interview with the newspaper "Rzeczpospolita", Szota emphasized that developments in Ukraine, where the war is not going favorably for Russia, could lead Moscow to escalate the situation. He mentioned the possibility of a limited attack on the Baltic states, similar to the actions in Crimea in 2014, when Russian soldiers acted under cover.
Szota emphasized that Russia is constantly testing NATO's reaction, considering that the costs of provocations are low, and the alliance's response is often political. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recently warned about possible Russian operations under false flags, stressing the need to send a clear message to Moscow that any attack on NATO territory will be considered unacceptable. Although Russian officials deny intentions to attack, NATO intelligence agencies remain concerned about a possible escalation of threats.
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