The 2027 French presidential election: Marine Le Pen leads by a wide margin in voting intentions, according to the latest poll

Marine Le Pen is comfortably ahead in voting intentions for France’s 2027 presidential election, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon could reach the second round in most scenarios analyzed by a new poll.

The candidate of the far-right Rassemblement National is projected to win 33%–36% of the vote in the first round, according to a Toluna Harris Interactive poll conducted between September 8 and 10 and cited by Reuters. The leader of the far-left La France Insoumise would receive between 15.5% and 17% and qualify for the runoff in three of the five scenarios tested. In another scenario, Mélenchon is tied for second place but would clearly lose a potential head-to-head against Le Pen.

Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is the only center-right candidate to surpass Mélenchon in one scenario. The results point to a weakening of the political center associated with Emmanuel Macron, who can no longer run after completing his second term.

The trend is confirmed by an Ipsos-BVA poll for Le Monde. Three-quarters of respondents expect France’s situation to worsen, while more than 70% are calling for real political and social change.