According to information published by The Telegraph, Russia is preparing a military provocation in Poland to test NATO's reaction, warning the United States. Poland's critical infrastructure could be attacked with missiles and drones, and Russian soldiers could penetrate NATO territory. The aim of this provocation would be to escalate tensions and compel Western allies to suspend aid to Ukraine. Washington has sent several warnings to Warsaw, and security sources do not rule out the possibility of a conventional attack.
Russia could present an incursion as an accidental penetration or a rescue mission. In the event of an attack, Poland could be forced to negotiate with Russia, which would represent a victory for Moscow. There is also discussion about attacks on Kaliningrad in response to provocations. Poland has conducted military exercises to send a clear message to Moscow that NATO's response would be devastating.
Sources
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