European services warn that Russia is planning more decisive actions against NATO

Heads of several European intelligence services warn that Russia could test NATO in the coming months through drone or missile attacks, limited incursions, sabotage and influence operations. The statements were made amid intensifying attacks between Russia and Ukraine and the approaching meeting of the UN General Assembly.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk argued that Moscow might try to demonstrate that Article 5 of NATO is “more theoretical than practical”. French President Emmanuel Macron described the assessments as well-founded and convened France’s political leaders on Friday for talks on the Russian threat.

Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech BIS, told The Guardian that a limited incursion or provocations under “false pretenses” could occur in “months, not years”. By contrast, the heads of Latvia’s and Sweden’s intelligence services adopted a more cautious tone. Normunds Mezviets said there were no signs of an imminent attack, while Thomas Nilsson stated that Russia did not appear interested in genuine negotiations.

However, all three officials expect Russian sabotage in Europe to intensify, including against railway infrastructure and the defense industry. The Kremlin rejects the accusations and denies any intention of attacking NATO.