Danish intelligence services warn that Russia could test NATO through a limited attack in the coming months, without preparing a full-scale invasion

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) estimates that there is a low but growing risk that Russia could launch a limited military attack on one or more neighboring NATO states in the coming months. However, a full-scale invasion remains highly unlikely, and the service has no indications that one is being prepared.

According to the assessment, Moscow could try to divert European resources from supporting Ukraine and test NATO’s ability to formulate a collective response. The scenarios analyzed include isolated strikes against infrastructure used to supply Ukraine, false-flag attacks using Ukrainian-made drones, or the deployment of a small number of troops, possibly without insignia.

The warning comes amid an intensifying Russian hybrid campaign against the West. The DDIS expects more cyberattacks and acts of sabotage, including operations that could affect critical infrastructure.

The Danish service says Russia is facing growing pressure due to losses in Ukraine, attacks on its territory and economic difficulties. Moscow could view the coming years as a window of opportunity, before Europe strengthens its military capabilities. The assessment maintains the scenarios under which Russia could wage a local war in about six months, a regional war in approximately two years and a major European conflict within five years, if certain conditions are met.