The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased by 10.4 points in January, due to the reduction of the budget deficit, but inflation and public debt remain high.

In January, the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania recorded an increase of 10.4 points, reflecting a more optimistic perception of the economy, mainly due to the reduction of the budget deficit. The president of CFA, Adrian Codirlașu, emphasizes that this improvement does not indicate a radical transformation of the Romanian economy, but rather a stabilization of the situation. Although the anticipated inflation rate for the next 12 months has decreased to 5.85%, the majority of survey participants expect prices to continue to rise, but at a slower pace. Regarding the leu, most respondents predict a depreciation of it in the next 12 months, with an anticipated average exchange rate of 5.1982 lei for one euro. Economically, a real GDP growth is estimated to rise from 0.8% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2026, and the budget deficit could decrease from 7.7% to 6.6% of GDP. Public debt is expected to reach 63% of GDP. In the real estate sector, 61% of respondents believe that prices are overvalued, but do not expect significant declines.