CFA Romania estimates economic growth of just 0–0.5% in 2027

Romania could record economic growth of just 0–0.5% in 2027, according to an estimate presented on Monday by Adrian Codirlașu, president of the CFA Romania Association, at the launch of the “FY 2027 Macroeconomic Outlook” report. The forecast is well below the estimates of international financial institutions, which anticipate GDP growth of 1.8–2.5%.

For the current year, CFA Romania estimates a slight recession, followed by a modest recovery in 2027. Codirlașu said that inflation is on a downward trend and that the National Bank of Romania could cut interest rates next year. However, the outlook could be affected by the external environment, where major central banks continue to exert pressure on financing costs.

Regarding the budget deficit, CFA Romania Vice President Alexandra Smedoiu estimates that it could reach approximately 6% of GDP in 2027, continuing the downward trend. She warned that budgetary pressures will remain high amid declining consumption and investment, but considers further tax increases unlikely.

CFA Romania warns that the risk of a sovereign rating downgrade will persist for years. Any improvement would require sustained economic growth and a significant reduction in the deficit, an objective that will be difficult to achieve after the funds available through the NRRP have been exhausted.