EBRD estimates that Romania’s economy will shrink by 0.2% in 2026, before growing by 1.8% next year

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) estimates that Romania’s economy will contract by 0.2% in 2026, before returning to growth in 2027, with an expansion of 1.8%, according to the institution’s latest forecast. The estimates are unchanged from the report published in June.

Romania’s economy was affected in the first half of 2026 by fiscal consolidation, high inflation and reduced household spending. Real GDP contracted by 0.8% compared with the same period of the previous year, following a 4.6% decline in manufacturing output, a contraction in services and a reduction in retail sales.

The construction sector was the main positive exception, supported by infrastructure projects financed by the European Union. At the same time, the current account deficit remains among the highest in the European Union, although external imbalances have begun to narrow.

HICP inflation reached 9.7% in May 2026 and slowed to 6.3% in August, a level that nevertheless remains the highest in the EU. The EBRD warns that the depreciation of the national currency and energy prices could maintain inflationary pressures.

The institution anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand and a partial recovery in exports. The main risks are related to fiscal policy, energy prices and weak external demand.