IMF announces recession in Romania: Revises its forecast downward and estimates an economic contraction of 0.5% in 2026, with inflation at 8.2%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly revised downward its forecast for Romania’s economy in 2026, estimating a 0.5% contraction in gross domestic product. In the forecast published in April, the institution anticipated economic growth of 0.7%. The new estimates appear in the report World Economic Outlook, October 2026 edition, and indicate a deterioration in the short-term outlook.

The IMF estimates that Romania’s economy will return to growth in 2027, but the projected expansion, at 2.2%, is lower than the previously anticipated 2.5%. In 2025, Romania’s GDP grew by 0.7%.

Average annual inflation is estimated at 8.2% in 2026, above the April forecast of 7.8%. For 2027, the IMF anticipates inflation easing to 4.1%. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 6.5% this year, from 6.1% in 2025, and fall to 5.9% in 2027.

The current account deficit is forecast to decline from 7.9% of GDP in 2025 to 7% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027, but remain high. Romania is expected to perform worse than the European economy, which is estimated to grow by 1.4% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027.