Attacks in the Black Sea could drive up the price of diesel fuel in Romania

Attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea could increase diesel prices in Romania by driving up insurance, transport and supply costs, according to a Frames analysis cited by Agerpres. The estimated impact from insurance alone is 5–12 bani per liter, or approximately 6–15 bani including VAT.

Normally, insuring a maritime shipment costs between 0.2% and 0.5% of the value of the goods. In the Black Sea region, however, war-risk premiums have risen significantly. For a seven-day voyage, they can add hundreds of thousands of dollars to the cost of a vessel, while cargo insurance has reached 1–2% of its value.

Frames estimates that a ton of diesel, priced at more than $1,600, could generate additional costs of $13–29 if insurance rates increase. Higher freight rates, detours and supply delays would add to these costs.

These pressures come on top of rising oil prices: Brent crude is 52% more expensive than a year ago. Romania is vulnerable because domestic refineries do not cover total consumption, while imports play an important role.

The analysis comes after a grain-laden vessel sank on Monday following an attack near the Pescăruș platform, while two other commercial vessels were hit on Tuesday in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. Frames warns that the effects could extend to food, services and road transport prices.