Fuel shortage for ships after the wars in Russia and the Middle East affected refineries and oil transportation

The global market could face a fuel oil shortage in the coming months after wars in Russia and the Middle East affected refineries and oil transport. In the third quarter of 2026, global demand could exceed supply by approximately 218,000 barrels per day, estimates consulting firm Energy Aspects.

Refineries are focusing production on diesel, gasoline and jet fuel, products that are more profitable than fuel oil, which is used mainly by ships and power plants. Attacks on oil facilities in Russia have reduced production, while the conflict in the Middle East has disrupted deliveries. China has reduced its refining activity and exports to protect its reserves, according to Reuters.

Asia is expected to be the worst-affected region because it depends on imports from Gulf countries. Singapore, the world’s most important marine bunkering hub, imports more than half of its needs.

Stocks in Singapore, Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp and Fujairah are approximately 30% below the average of the past three years. In Singapore, fuel oil prices have risen by 76%. Russia’s exports fell in August to around 591,000 barrels per day, from more than 860,000 in 2025, while exports from the Middle East declined by 45%.

Ships avoiding the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait travel longer routes and consume more fuel. Reduced supply and rising demand could trigger further price increases and higher costs for maritime transport and electricity generation.

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