Goldman Sachs warns that diesel prices could remain high until 2027, amid a global refining shortage and low inventories

Diesel prices could remain high throughout 2027, Goldman Sachs warns, amid insufficient global refining capacity to accommodate the recovery in demand and replenish depleted inventories.

The U.S. bank estimates that refining margins for diesel and jet fuel could average more than $40 per barrel next year, more than double the usual level. High prices would be necessary to limit consumption and prevent demand from exceeding available production capacity.

Goldman Sachs expects the price of Brent crude to stabilize at around $80 per barrel as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz gradually return to normal. However, refineries may need to operate at their highest utilization rate in two decades to meet demand.

Global inventories of petroleum products could end 2026 at their lowest level of reserves relative to days of consumption since 2015. Analysts estimate that replenishing them could take up to two years. The release of 100 million barrels by the G7 countries will temporarily ease the pressure, but will not resolve the structural deficit.