The pump price does not explode just because of oil, it also explodes because of taxes.

In Romania, the discussion about fuels almost always starts with "what's the price of a barrel" and ends with "who is ripping us off". Data from 2020 and 2026 tells a more uncomfortable and clearer story: year by year, diesel and gasoline are becoming less of a market product and more of a fiscal and administrative mechanism, in which the state increases the share of taxes and costs rise rapidly.

The price at the pump is no longer just market. It is also fiscal policy

In 2020, 63% of each liter of fuel went to the state budget. In 2026, the percentage reaches 69%. This means that almost 7 out of 10 lei paid at the pump are not for oil, not for transport, not for refining, and not for commercial margin. They are public money.

Three engines of price increases: the price of raw material, taxation, and internal costs

If we do not overlook the total increase in costs, the jump is massive and almost identical in magnitude:

• Diesel: 4.73 → 8.67 lei/l (+3.94 lei/l, +83%)

• Gasoline: 4.81 → 8.24 lei/l (+3.43 lei/l, +71%)

It is a structural increase, not a "momentary" one. And when we look at the main causes, the figures show that two components are pulling the most:

(A) Excise taxes increase by 62% for both products.

• Diesel: 1.73 → 2.80 (+1.07)

• Gasoline: 1.89 → 3.06 (+1.17)

(B) VAT per liter increases significantly (because the tax base increases).

• Diesel: 0.92 → 1.51 (+0.59, +64%)

• Gasoline: 0.84 → 1.43 (+0.59, +70%)

Just from these two rows (excise + VAT), the differences are already huge. Practically, taxation is not "a part of the price"; it becomes the axis, around which the price is reconstructed.

The price of crude oil rises, but does not drive the story

In parallel, the Brent crude oil price in lei/l increases by 62%:

• 1.512 → 2.45 (+0.94)

It rises a lot, but still less than the excise taxes.

And the exchange rate is slowly increasing: +12%. This is important because it removes one of the reflex explanations ("the leu has fallen"). According to the data, the problem is not here.

Who has risen faster: oil or taxes?

Between 2020 and 2026:

• Brent crude oil in lei/l: +62%

• Excise taxes: +62%

• VAT per liter: +64–70%

The excise tax increases at the same rate as the raw material. VAT increases because the base increases. If it were only oil, we would be discussing global volatility. But the figures show otherwise: the main engine of price increases in the last 5 years is fiscal.

Internal costs show a silent explosion

The operational chain has not remained stable; it has increased approximately as follows:

• Transport: +407%

• Refining: +641%

• Distribution: +50%

Refining increases by more than six times percentage-wise. This is a huge dynamic. This means that the pressure comes not only from taxes but also from the actual cost of producing and delivering fuel in Romania. The system is becoming structurally more expensive.

The figures leave no room for convenient interpretations. Between 2020 and 2026, the price of fuel at the pump has increased by about 80%. Oil increases by 62%. The exchange rate rises slightly. At the same time, excise taxes increase by over 62%. VAT per liter increases by over 70%. The share that goes to the budget directly or indirectly rises from 63% to 69%.

This means that almost 7 lei out of 10 paid at the pump are fiscal money. The market does not dominate the price. Not the commercial margin. Not the exchange rate. The fiscal structure dominates the price. When the state constantly increases the share, when taxes rise faster than the raw material, the responsibility can no longer be transferred only to the "economy" or "external circumstances".

The harsh reality is that the liter of fuel has mainly become a tool for budget collection. And when almost 70% of the price is taxation, the increase is no longer a market accident. It is a choice of economic policy.