Middle Eastern crude oil exports have exceeded pre-war levels

Crude oil exports from the Middle East temporarily exceeded pre-war levels during the US-Israel war with Iran, recording figures ranging between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and between 27 and 29 September, according to preliminary Kpler data.

Between March 2025 and February 2026, before the conflict broke out, exports averaged 18 million barrels per day. The seven-day moving average reached 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1. The data include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, terminal exports, and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September, reaching their highest monthly level since February. The statistics do not include vessels that may have switched off their AIS transponders to avoid detection.

Before the war, approximately 125 commercial vessels crossed the strait daily, through which around 20% of the world's crude oil and LNG supply passed. Traffic continues to be affected by attacks, however. The firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents, including the strike on the oil tanker Kazimah III on October 1. The crew was evacuated safely.