EXCLUSIVE | At the end of 2026, it will be better for us, if it doesn't get worse!

We are on a knife's edge. The cold figures from the Ministry of Finance clash head-on with the hot passions of Dâmbovița politics. The construction of the state budget for the current year is much more than just an exercise in addition and subtraction aimed at reducing the deficit. It is, in fact, a bet on the economic survival of a nation that has lived too long on debt. But it is also a bet on the survival in its current form of this governing coalition. The title I have given is not a cynical play on words. It is – I believe – a faithful mirror of an ambivalent reality: we have the premises for sustainable recovery, but we are just one populist vote away from an uncontrolled derailment.

Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, installed at the helm of the Government with the mandate to "restore order", comes with a budget project that has sent shockwaves through some political offices (even through his own party). After a 2025 in which the budget deficit dangerously flirted with the 9% of GDP threshold, the project for 2026 proposes a drastic tightening. The deficit target of 6.2% is, in the Executive's vision, the "red line" that cannot be crossed without risking the suspension of European funds and a downgrade of the country’s rating to junk status.

The strong argument of this budget is the shift of the center of gravity from consumption to investments. With a record allocation of over 7.2% of GDP for infrastructure and digitalization, Romania is trying to force the note. The logic is simple: we cannot pay higher pensions and salaries if we do not build the highways and networks that will attract investors. However, this logic collides with the immediate reality of the citizen's pocket. The increase in VAT, the adjustment of excise duties, and the new dividend tax regime at 16% are bitter pills that must be swallowed to avoid collapse.

Despite the chorus of critics, there are clear signs that the discipline of the "Bolojan method" is bearing fruit. January 2026 brought an absolute premiere in the last decade: a budget surplus in the first month of the year, supported by a 17.9% increase in collected revenues. The digitalization of ANAF, a project postponed by all post-December governments, has finally begun to bring to light gaps from the underground economy. Moreover, 2026 represents the "golden milestone" of the PNRR. We are in the year in which we must draw over 10 billion euros, money that must leap from the status of figures in a table to that of real construction sites, regional hospitals, completed highways, and schools equipped to European standards. This is Romania's great chance: if absorption remains on track, the capital injection will partially compensate for the decrease in domestic consumption caused by austerity measures.

However, beyond the technocratic optimism, the 2026 budget is under immense pressure. The public debt service has become a "black hole" that swallows over 10 billion euros annually. Practically, we are paying interest on past loans instead of financing the future. This constraint drastically limits the maneuvering space for any social policy.

On the external front, the geopolitical context is increasingly turbulent. The war in Ukraine and the conflict in Iran are driving energy prices to high levels, forcing the state to maintain capping schemes that will "squeeze" billions of lei from the budget. In a global economy that is slowing down, with a projected growth for Romania of only 1.1% – 1.4%, the Government's margin for error is practically zero.

The real battle for the budget is not fought in the offices of the Finance Ministry, but in the corridors of Parliament. The governing coalition is, at this moment, an organism in a state of septic shock. The fragility of this political construction is the greatest systemic risk for Romania's stability in 2026.

Prime Minister Bolojan is facing a siege on multiple fronts. The PSD, although part of the government, plays a dangerous double role. The social democrats systematically attack the Prime Minister's "fiscal dogmatism", demanding social assistance packages worth billions of lei under the threat of withdrawing parliamentary support. Their message is clear: we cannot sacrifice social peace on the altar of the deficit demanded by Brussels.

Nor are the waters calmer within the PNL. The "local barons" are unhappy with the massive cuts in the administrative apparatus and the elimination of tens of thousands of vacant positions, measures that reduce their influence and political client base. The constant attack from parties like AUR or USR (each from opposite directions) deepens the Prime Minister's isolation. Bolojan has "bet everything on one card", conditioning his stay at the Victoria Palace on the passage of the budget in an assumed form, without populist amendments that would blow up the deficit.

Here we reach the crux of the analysis: "it will be better, if it does not get worse". If Parliament votes the budget in the proposed form, Romania will go through a year of necessary sacrifice. By the end of 2026, we could have an economy with more solid foundations, controlled inflation, and stabilized public debt. This is the scenario in which "it will be better" in the long term, accepting a temporary "worse". The doomsday scenario, however, is that of a rotten political compromise. If, to survive in power, the Prime Minister accepts the PSD's "solidarity" amendments and relaxes fiscal discipline, the deficit will jump again to 8-9%. At that moment, the European Commission will turn off the tap on PNRR funds, the country’s rating will plummet, and borrowing costs will become unbearable. In such a spiral, inflation will eat away any nominal increase in pensions or salaries, and by the end of 2026, we will be, without a doubt, much worse off.

The 2026 budget is, in essence, a test of political intelligence and social resilience. Romania can no longer postpone the moment of truth through "accounting artifices" or reckless external borrowing. The direction imposed by Ilie Bolojan is economically correct, but extremely risky from an electoral standpoint. We are in an unstable equilibrium. If the political class understands that 2026 is not the year of masked electoral campaigns, but the year of macroeconomic salvation, then this budget will be the cornerstone of a new decade of growth. If, however, party interests prevail over the rigor of budgetary discipline, we will witness a failure of proportions that will mortgage the future of the next generations.

At the end of 2026, we will look back and know whether we were capable of sacrifice for progress or whether we preferred the illusion of well-being on debt. Until then, every day in Parliament is a step on a tightrope stretched over the abyss.