EPIC Report: restrictions on alternative products may maintain traditional smoking and fuel the black market

A report by the European Policy Innovation Council (EPIC), published in 2026, argues that tighter European regulations on tobacco products could have effects contrary to the goal of reducing smoking. The analysis focuses on the forthcoming revision of the Tobacco Products Directive and argues that authorities are assessing mainly the risks of new products, rather than the consequences of keeping conventional cigarettes as an affordable option.

The report cites assessments according to which heated tobacco products and e-cigarettes may pose a lower risk than traditional smoking, while noting that this perspective is disputed and that the World Health Organization supports a more restrictive approach.

At COP11, held in 2025, several countries, including Romania, warned that treating products with different risk profiles uniformly could overlook consumption realities. EPIC says the EU has failed to adopt a common position, while the proposals discussed included banning flavors and limiting filters.

According to the report, smoking prevalence in the EU fell from 29.3% in 2009 to 24.6% in 2023, but the current rate of decline would lead to approximately 21% in 2035, well above the 5% target. A restrictive scenario would raise prevalence to 25.3% in 2027, while continuation of the current trend would indicate 15.6% in 2050.

The authors also estimate annual economic losses of €47.6 billion during 2026–2030, due to declining tax revenues and the relocation of production outside the EU. The figures are scenario-based and rely on assumptions, while assessment of the regulations’ direct effect remains limited by the lack of quantitative data.