A conflict between Russia and NATO could cost the global economy $1.5 trillion. Scenarios include attacks on Baltic states and possible peace agreements.

A Bloomberg Economics analysis estimates global losses of $1.5 trillion from a war between Russia and NATO, similar to the impact of the invasion of Ukraine. Russia, with growing munitions stockpiles, could launch attacks on the strategically vulnerable Baltic states. Peace scenarios are also being discussed, but tensions remain and Europe will beef up its defense budgets. In the event of a conflict, the Baltic states' economies could shrink by 43%, while Russia would lose just 1% of GDP.