ECB estimates a decrease in inflation to 2.8% in the third quarter, but warns that risks from the Middle East could affect energy prices

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published an economic bulletin estimating that inflation will decrease to 2.8% in the third quarter, due to the reduction in energy commodity prices. However, the ECB warns that a prolonged war in the Middle East could lead to an increase in energy prices, thus affecting inflation in the euro area.

The interest rate on bank deposits has been maintained at 2%, but some members of the Governing Council consider a rate increase at the next meeting to be premature. The ECB emphasizes that inflation could become more persistent if wages rise in response to the rising energy costs.

Additionally, electricity prices have increased by 84% since December 2025, and gas prices in Europe have risen by 98%, in the context of historically low stocks. The ECB estimates that the euro area will lose market shares globally due to competitiveness issues and the impact of the war in the Middle East on financial markets.