Isabel Schnabel, one of the most influential voices in the leadership of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated in an interview with Reuters that the effects of the conflict and rising energy prices are too extensive to be ignored. She emphasized the need for an interest rate hike in June, considering that inflation in the euro area has risen again to 3%, exceeding the official target of 2%.
Rising energy prices are increasingly affecting more products and services, and a potential increase in interest rates could lead to higher loan rates, impacting variable-rate loans and new mortgages for homes or businesses. The ECB also aims to limit inflation by discouraging consumption, but this could also slow economic growth, which is estimated at only 0.9% for 2026.
ECB officials are concerned about a possible inflationary spiral, and Schnabel mentioned that the effects of the conflict in the Middle East are already significant. Financial markets anticipate two interest rate hikes in the next 12 months. In the context of escalating conflict, the U.S. has resumed attacks on Iran, which could further affect energy prices.
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