The NBR keeps the key interest rate at 6.50% and warns that inflation could rise again by the end of the year

The National Bank of Romania decided on Thursday to keep the monetary policy rate at 6.50% per year, despite the significant decline in inflation in July and August. However, the NBR warns that the inflation rate could return to an upward trajectory by the end of the year, amid rising fuel, energy and other raw material prices.

The lending facility rate was kept at 7.50%, while the deposit facility rate remained at 5.50%. The minimum reserve requirements for banks’ liabilities in lei and foreign currency were also maintained.

Annual inflation fell from 10.42% in June to 8.16% in July and 6.17% in August. The decline was mainly supported by the fading of base effects generated by the removal of the energy price cap and increases in VAT and excise duties. Core inflation reached 6.2% in August.

At the same time, the economy stagnated in the second quarter of 2026, following a 0.1% contraction in the first three months. The NBR identifies drought, exchange-rate developments, energy prices and the conflict in the Middle East as risks. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for November 12, 2026.