NBR to decide key interest rate / Analysts expect the rate to remain at 6.5%

The National Bank of Romania is meeting today, November 12, to decide the level of the key interest rate, as most analysts expect the rate to remain at 6.5%. The monetary policy rate has been at this level since August 2024, while persistent core inflation limits the possibility of an immediate cut.

The forecast is supported by analysts at Erste Group Research and BCR, who believe that the NBR will maintain a cautious monetary policy. The decision comes as the central bank closely monitors inflationary pressures and developments in the leu-euro exchange rate.

The first interest rate cuts are not expected until 2027. Until then, investors and analysts will assess the message sent by the NBR, as well as the new Inflation Report, for indications of when monetary policy easing could begin.

Keeping the key interest rate unchanged affects leu-denominated borrowing costs, financial market yields, and overall financing conditions in the economy. Any cut would depend on a clearer and sustained decline in inflation, as well as exchange rate stability.