BNR anticipates a decrease in the inflation rate in the third quarter of 2026

The annual inflation rate in Romania began to decrease in June and a significant reduction is expected in the third quarter, according to the minutes of the BNR monetary policy meeting. This decrease is influenced by the fading effects of the removal of the price cap on electricity and the increase in VAT and excise duties.

However, inflation will remain slightly above the previously estimated level, mainly due to the increase in rents for state housing.

The BNR's May forecast indicates an inflation rate of 10.3% in June, decreasing to 5.5% by the end of 2026 and 2.7% in March 2028.

The central bank warns of risks related to gas prices and other raw materials, in the context of the conflict in the Middle East, but also of some factors that could temper inflation, such as the decrease in oil prices.

BNR has decided to maintain the key interest rate at 6.5% and will continue to monitor economic developments to maintain price stability.