The annual inflation rate in Romania is estimated to reach 10.3% in 2026, with high risks for the leu and economic activity.

According to the minutes of the BNR monetary policy meeting on May 15, the annual inflation rate is expected to reach 10.3% by mid-year and to decrease to 5.5% in December 2026, a more pessimistic forecast than the previous one. The risks to the exchange rate of the leu remain high, and economic activity will feel the impact of budget consolidation and inflation. BNR Council members emphasized the easing of the labor market and uncertainties related to labor costs.

Inflation has risen due to the increase in fuel prices and other goods, and the economy recorded a decline in the first quarter of 2026. A slight decrease in consumer spending is also estimated, but a recovery is expected in 2027, supported by European funds. Political stability and the efficient use of European funds are essential for economic recovery. BNR has decided to maintain the key interest rate at 6.50% to ensure price stability.