Viktor Orban is playing his last card: Ukraine, at the center of the electoral campaign, while Tisza remains at a safe distance from Fidesz in the polls.

The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban accuses Ukrainians of plotting to attack his family, playing the card of threats to his security, while the latest opinion poll shows a 14 percentage point difference between Fidesz and Tisza ahead of next month's parliamentary elections.

Orban and his allies seem to be using the dispute between Hungary and Ukraine to gain maximum political advantage ahead of next month's elections, which could end his 16-year nationalist government, writes The Guardian.

Orbán posted on Facebook Wednesday night a recording claiming to show him talking to his daughters on the phone.

"I am sure you will see on the news that Ukrainians have threatened not only me but also my family," he said, apparently emotional. "My children and grandchildren... We must take this seriously, but we must not be afraid."

Orban was apparently responding to the words of politician Hrihoriy Omelchenko, a former SBU officer. He issued threats against Orban in a televised interview this week, suggesting that justice officials could hunt down the Hungarian leader if he does not change his anti-Ukrainian stance.

Kiev distances itself from such statements, but the episode is being used by Orban's camp to portray an image of a prime minister under direct attack from Ukraine.

Additionally, a recent statement by Volodymyr Zelensky – who said that if someone in the EU blocks the 90 billion euros for Ukraine, "the army will get that person's address" – was reinterpreted in Budapest as a personal threat, even though the Ukrainian president did not explicitly name Orban.

Druzhba, cash, and mutual accusations of sabotage and "terrorist state"

The political conflict is fueled by the dispute over the Druzhba oil pipeline, a critical infrastructure for Hungarian refineries, whose deliveries were interrupted after a Russian drone attack on the Brody hub in western Ukraine.

Budapest claims that Kiev is deliberately delaying repairs to harm the Hungarian economy and Fidesz's electoral chances, while experts cited by BBC indicate that the flow stoppage is related to a necessary technical maneuver to avoid an ecological disaster, with the process estimated to take about six weeks.

Tensions escalated after Hungarian anti-terrorist troops stopped and detained a banking convoy of Oschadbank, the Ukrainian state bank, which was transporting tens of millions of euros and 9 kg of gold, accusing possible money laundering operations.

Kiev speaks of "hostage-taking" and "terrorist state," claiming psychological and physical pressures on the seven Ukrainian citizens, while Budapest suggests that the money could be linked to an alleged "Ukrainian war mafia."

"Deadly danger" and electoral panic: how Ukraine is used in Fidesz's message

With a month to go before the election, the theme of Ukraine has become the focal point of Fidesz's campaign. According to an analysis cited by HotNews, some analysts see the escalation of accusations of energy sabotage and assassination plots as a sign of panic in Orban's camp, facing for the first time in 16 years a real risk of losing power.

Giant Fidesz billboards show Zelensky either asking for money from EU leaders or alongside Peter Magyar, the leader of Tisza, under the message that they represent a "risk" for Hungary, while the opposition is presented as the force that will push the country into war – an accusation that Tisza rejects and claims in turn the label of "true peace party."

The campaign also includes a clip generated with artificial intelligence, suggesting executions and violence against Hungarians if the opposition wins, stirring the narrative of an "existential danger" related to Ukraine and the change of power.

Tisza, facing Fidesz: the stakes of a 14 percentage point gap

In this context, the latest poll conducted by 21 Research Centre between March 2 and 6 shows Tisza at 53% of decided votes, compared to 39% for Fidesz – a gap of 14 percentage points, slightly reduced from the 16 points recorded in January. At the level of the entire electorate, Tisza is credited with 38%, while Fidesz stands at 30%, and the only other party that would cross the 5% threshold would be the radical Mi Hazank party, according to Reuters.

Modeling the parliamentary projection indicates a scenario in which Tisza could obtain 115 mandates out of 199, leaving Fidesz with 78 seats, which would mean a spectacular reversal of the power ratio in the Budapest parliament. In response, Fidesz invokes other polls conducted by institutes close to power, which would keep them ahead, but the credibility of these measures is contested by the opposition precisely because of financial or personal ties to the governing party.

Pro-Russian disinformation, security, and Orban's bet on "the only guarantor of peace"

Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, Orban positions himself as the only guarantor of peace, insisting that a victory for Peter Magyar would "tie" Hungary to Kiev in the conflict. At the same time, a Financial Times report shows that a think tank close to the Kremlin has developed plans for a disinformation campaign in favor of Orban, which fuels accusations that Budapest is exploiting pro-Russian narratives in its internal campaign.

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ANALYSIS The latest opinion poll in Hungary shows for the first time a vulnerable Viktor Orban as Prime Minister, ahead of the parliamentary elections in April

Analysis conducted with the support of Perplexity