From war to weather: a "super El Niño" phenomenon brings new risks for global food costs

Scientists specializing in climate warn that a strong El Niño phenomenon could occur in the coming months, with a one in three chance of an intense weather episode between October and December. European climate models suggest an even greater chance for a 'super El Niño', which could amplify weather risks in a climate already destabilized by human-caused emissions.

Chris Jaccarini, senior analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, emphasized that 2026 is shaping up to be an expensive year due to conflicts and climate risks, with food prices pressured by climate extremes and dependence on fossil fuels.

El Niño tends to raise prices for cocoa, cooking oils, rice, and sugar, also affecting other tropical products. This situation comes after a La Niña phenomenon that has reduced global temperatures. Additionally, rising prices for fuels and fertilizers, exacerbated by conflicts in the Middle East, worry American farmers in the planting season.