Russia: The public deficit could reach 3.5-4.4% of GDP, tripling compared to the official target, due to the decline in energy revenues and the increase in expenditures.

Russia's public deficit is expected to triple official estimates, reaching between 3.5% and 4.4% of GDP, compared to the target of 1.6%. This is the result of a decrease in oil purchases from India and an increase in oil discounts, which affect budget revenues.

Sources cited by Reuters, linked to the Government, indicate a possible decline in energy revenues by 18% by 2026 and an increase in expenditures between 4.1% and 8.4%. Revenues from oil and gas fell by 24% in 2022, and in January 2023 they reached the lowest level since July 2020.

Additionally, international sanctions and the appreciation of the ruble have affected revenues, and the estimates of the group of experts are in line with those of commercial banks. Representatives of the Ministry of Finance did not comment on these forecasts.