ANALYSIS. Forecasts for Robor and IRCC in 2026 and recommendations for already contracted loans or for those considering taking a loan.

ROBOR and IRCC indices will enter 2026 on a relatively high plateau, but with a slow downward pressure, suggesting a year of slight stabilization, not spectacular decreases in loan rates. For borrowers with variable loans in lei, the likely effect is a slight relaxation of rates throughout the year, with a faster impact on ROBOR and a delayed effect on IRCC.

Context: where we are at the beginning of 2026

The BNR key interest rate is maintained at 6.5% at the first meeting of 2026, the central bank signaling a slow decrease in inflation and a potential relaxation only towards the end of the year.

Analysts from major banks (including Erste/BCR) foresee a gradual reduction of the key interest rate to around 5.25–5.75% by the end of 2026, which implies a downward trend, but very cautiously.

ROBOR 3M, the classic barometer for old loans in lei, stabilized in the second half of 2025 around 6–6.5%, after peaks above 7% in the spring of 2025.

Stage conclusion: the economy remains in a regime of still slightly negative real interest rates, but high enough to discourage a new wave of cheap lending, and banks have no reason to aggressively reduce the cost of money in the first half of the year.

ROBOR in 2026: the baseline scenario

ROBOR is the average rate at which banks lend to each other, calculated from the quotes, and remains a benchmark for older loans of individuals and companies. BCR and other banks explain the formula: variable interest = ROBOR + fixed margin from the contract.

In 2025, ROBOR 3M had a maximum range of around 7.3–7.4%, then gradually dropped to about 6.1–6.2% at the beginning of 2026, in line with the stabilization of the key interest rate and the tempering of inflationary expectations.

What is likely to happen in 2026

As long as BNR keeps the key interest rate at 6.5% in the first part of the year, the "natural" room for decrease for ROBOR is limited, likely in a corridor of 5.7–6.3% for 3M–6M maturities, with small fluctuations around these levels.

If the analysts' scenario regarding the gradual reduction of the key interest rate to 5.25–5.75% by the end of the year is confirmed, ROBOR could drop more visibly in the second half of 2026, but we are rather talking about tenths of a percentage point, not a collapse.

Impact for loans linked to ROBOR:

Rates have already passed the peak period (2022–the first half of 2025) and enter a zone of slight relaxation; a reduction from ~7.2% to ~6.1% on ROBOR 3M means about 1 percentage point less on interest, which translates to hundreds of lei in monthly savings on an average mortgage loan.

However, the risk of a new sudden increase is not zero: fiscal pressures, liberalization of energy prices, and external shocks can bring back nervousness in the interbank market, and ROBOR reacts quickly to such stimuli.

IRCC in 2026: inertia and delayed decrease

IRCC is the reference index for consumers, calculated based on actual transactions between banks, with a delay of two quarters compared to the period it refers to. BCR and CEC emphasize that IRCC is more "anchored in reality", but responds more slowly to market changes.

In 2025, IRCC quarterly fluctuated around 5.55–6.06%, and the calculation for Q3 2025 (valid from January 1, 2026) indicates a value of 5.68%. Daily IRCC in the second half of 2025 had values between approximately 5.5% and 6.4%, confirming a plateau phase, not explosive growth.

Probable trajectory in 2026

For the first quarters of 2026, IRCC will continue to reflect the relatively high interest levels of 2025, with values around 5.6–5.8%, even if the interbank market begins to relax marginally.

Analyses modeling IRCC based on the evolution of daily interest rates and market liquidity estimate its maintenance around 5.5–5.6% in the second quarter of 2026, which means that borrowers will feel the eventual decreases in the interbank market with a delay.

Consequences for borrowers in IRCC:

Rates will not increase aggressively, but neither will they decrease spectacularly in the first months of 2026; the effect is one of "slight capping below peaks", with variations of a few tenths of a percentage point.

If the scenario of reducing the BNR key interest rate in the second half of the year is confirmed, the impact on IRCC will be felt only towards the end of 2026 and the beginning of 2027, due to the delayed calculation mechanism.

How the credit market looks in 2026

Existing loans (ROBOR vs IRCC)

For old loans linked to ROBOR, volatility remains higher, but the potential to benefit among the first from future interest rate decreases is higher, as ROBOR aligns almost in real-time with market conditions.

For loans linked to IRCC, the buffer is inertia: in periods of rising interest rates, the borrower is temporarily protected, in periods of decrease, the benefit comes with a delay of up to two quarters.

Concrete effect in 2026:

In the first half of the year, ROBOR clients may see marginally decreasing adjustments to rates if liquidity pressure remains low and inflation continues its gradual descent.

IRCC clients will operate in a "quasi-fixed" interest regime around 5.6–5.8% on the index component, which offers predictability but limits gains from any rapid decreases in the key interest rate.

New loans in 2026

The offer of new loans in lei will settle on total interest rates (margin + ROBOR/IRCC) still high in historical terms, but below the peaks of 2022–2023; banks place greater emphasis on products with fixed interest for 3–5 years to respond to clients' appetite for security.

Against the backdrop of the key interest rate still at 6.5% and slowly decreasing inflation, the current level of credit cost will continue to discourage excessive borrowing and select a clientele with stable incomes and a more conservative debt level.

Segments likely affected:

Mortgage loans will remain the main products affected by the ROBOR vs IRCC vs fixed interest debate, in a context where any variation of 0.5–1 percentage points in interest translates into significant differences in rates over a 20–30 year horizon.

Consumer loans, shorter and with smaller amounts, will feel less the "nuances" between indices, but the overall high level of interest will temper demand.

Recommendations for borrowers in 2026

For those with existing loans

Index check: periodically monitor the level of ROBOR/IRCC published by the bank or official sources and compare it with that in the contract; any movement of 0.5 percentage points deserves to be translated into lei to see the real impact on the rate.

Switching from ROBOR to IRCC: CEC shows that the switch from ROBOR to IRCC can be made by request and additional act, without re-evaluating the file, but returning to ROBOR is no longer possible. The move makes sense in periods of uncertainty or rising interest rates, when IRCC runs "in the wake" and can offer lower rates in the short term.

Partial fixed interest: some banks promote mortgage loans with fixed interest in the first years as a protective solution; the initial interest is generally higher, but you lock in a period of stability, useful if you fear future shocks on interest rates.

Prudent for 2026:

Those on ROBOR and very sensitive to rate fluctuations may consider switching to IRCC or refinancing to a loan with fixed interest for 3–5 years, accepting a slightly higher cost now to reduce the risk of future shocks.

Those on IRCC with a long horizon (e.g., 20–25 years) should use any index decrease to repay early (partially), not to extend their debts; a few hundred lei paid extra monthly on their own initiative significantly shortens the duration and reduces the total cost.

For those taking new loans in 2026

Compare scenarios, not just today's interest: ask the bank for simulations on at least three scenarios: constant interest, interest +1pp and interest -1pp, for both the ROBOR option and for IRCC or fixed interest, to see where your stress point is.

ROBOR vs IRCC for new loans: for consumers, the law makes IRCC the main reference index for new contracts, which standardizes the offer; the risk of volatility like "ROBOR 2018–2022" is thus partially diminished, but not eliminated.

Conservative debt level: given the still high interest rates and the prospect of slow decreases, it is prudent not to calibrate your loan to the maximum limit allowed by the bank, but to a debt level where you can absorb an additional 1–2 percentage points in interest.

Key message for 2026: for ROBOR and IRCC, 2026 seems more like a year of "controlled landing" than a spectacular relaunch of cheap loans; the biggest winners will be borrowers who treat this period as a window for adjustment – refinancing, switching to safer products, and early repayments – not as a moment of complete relaxation.

Analysis conducted with the help of the NewsVibe platform and Perplexity