EU economy emissions increased by 0.3% at the beginning of 2026, after decreasing compared to the previous year.

Greenhouse gas emissions generated by the European Union's economy increased by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the last three months of 2025, reaching approximately 837 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, according to Eurostat estimates. The quarterly increase came mainly from the electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply sector, where emissions rose by 4.8%, while households, the manufacturing industry, construction, and transport reported reductions.

In short, emissions from the EU economy reached approximately 837 million tons of CO₂ equivalent in the first quarter of 2026, 0.3% above the level in the previous quarter. The EU's GDP remained unchanged compared to the fourth quarter of 2025, which means that the slight increase in emissions was not accompanied by a quarterly growth in the economy. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, the situation is different: emissions decreased by 1.2%, while the EU's GDP grew by 0.8%. The electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning sector recorded the highest increase in emissions, at 4.8%, while household emissions decreased by 1.3%. Emissions increased compared to the previous quarter in 20 member states and decreased in seven. Romania recorded the third-largest reduction in the EU, at 2.7%, after Slovenia and Luxembourg.

The European Union's economy generated approximately 837 million tons of CO₂ equivalent in the first quarter of the year, compared to approximately 835 million during the October-December 2025 period. The data are seasonally adjusted to allow for direct comparison between quarters, eliminating recurring variations caused by factors such as season and calendar.

The 0.3% increase compared to the previous quarter must be viewed together with the year-on-year trend. Compared to the first three months of 2025, seasonally adjusted emissions were 1.2% lower, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP of the EU grew by 0.8%. The two comparisons thus describe different trends: a slight recovery in emissions compared to the end of last year, but still a level lower than that recorded a year earlier.

On a quarterly basis, the EU's GDP remained unchanged between the last three months of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The 0.3% increase in emissions thus occurred under conditions of stable aggregate economic activity, although the contributions of various sectors evolved in different directions.

The manufacturing industry remained the largest individual source among the sectors separately reported by Eurostat, accounting for 20.8% of total emissions from the EU economy. Households generated 20.2%, and the supply of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning accounted for 16.5%. The rest of the emissions come from agriculture, forestry and fishing, the extractive industry, construction, water and waste management, and various services.

The most significant change compared to the previous quarter came from the energy sector. Emissions from electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activities increased by 4.8%, the largest increase among the individual economic categories reported by Eurostat. The water, sewage, and waste management sector recorded a much smaller increase of 0.7%.

Several of the major sectors, however, evolved in the opposite direction. Direct emissions from households decreased by 1.3%, and those from the manufacturing industry by 0.6%. Construction and transport and storage also recorded reductions of 0.6% each.

The household category includes emissions generated directly by the consumption of the population. Emissions from a privately owned car, for example, are attributed to households, while those from vehicles used by transport companies are included in the transport and storage sector. This method allows for the comparison of emissions with economic indicators such as GDP using the same activity classification logic.

The aggregate evolution of the EU hides significant differences between member states. Seasonally adjusted emissions increased in 20 of the 27 member states between the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, while seven countries recorded reductions.

The largest decrease was estimated in Slovenia, where emissions fell by 5%. Luxembourg followed with a decrease of 3.8%, and Romania recorded the third-largest reduction in the Union, at 2.7%.

At the other end of the ranking, Estonia recorded the strongest increase, at 9.7%. Emissions in Finland increased by 6.4%, and those in Bulgaria by 4.6%. Eurostat attributes the increases in these states largely to the rise in emissions generated by construction and electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activities.

The relationship between the evolution of emissions and that of the economy also differs between member states. Of the 20 countries where emissions increased, 18 also recorded an increase in GDP. Of the seven states that reduced their emissions, four managed to either maintain or increase their GDP simultaneously: Spain, Greece, France, and Slovenia.

This combination indicates situations where economic activity can grow without a corresponding increase in emissions, but quarterly data do not establish the causes of these differences and do not allow for the assessment of each state's structural progress in decarbonization.

The figures published by Eurostat are accounts of atmospheric emissions associated with economic activities and are constructed to be analyzed together with national account indicators. They include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, converted into a common unit of CO₂ equivalent based on the potential of each gas to contribute to global warming.

The data are not identical to the national emissions inventories used for reporting under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement. Eurostat accounts follow the principle of economic residency: emissions from a resident company are attributed to that country even when the activity takes place in another state, as may be the case with international transport.

The same approach is used by the European System of Accounts for economic indicators, which allows for direct comparison between emissions and GDP. The inventories used for international climate obligations follow a different territorial methodology.

Data for the first quarter of 2026 are Eurostat's quarterly estimates, except for the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain, which provided their own data. The estimates are based on information regarding economic activity during the year and on annual accounts regarding atmospheric emissions.

Comparison with the same period of the previous year shows that the overall direction remains downward. The 1.2% reduction in emissions compared to the first quarter of 2025 occurred while the EU's GDP was 0.8% higher, which means that the European economy produced more economic value than a year earlier at a lower level of emissions accounted for by this methodology.

This evolution should not be confused with achieving the EU's climate objectives. The European target for 2030 is a net reduction of emissions by at least 55% compared to 1990, and the target for 2050 is climate neutrality. Official progress towards these objectives is assessed through annual greenhouse gas inventories, not directly through quarterly estimates of atmospheric emissions accounts.

Quarterly data have another function: they allow for quicker observation of the relationship between economic evolution and emissions, before complete annual inventories are available. They can show whether changes in economic activity are accompanied by increases or decreases in climate pressure and can identify the sectors or member states where changes are most pronounced.

For the first quarter of 2026, this picture is mixed. EU emissions increased slightly compared to the end of 2025, mainly against the backdrop of developments in the energy sector, but remained below the level of a year ago. At the same time, reductions in households, industry, and transport compensated for some of the increase in the electricity and gas sector.

Eurostat publishes quarterly estimates of greenhouse gas emissions for economic activities and households, expressed in CO₂ equivalent and seasonally adjusted for comparison between quarters. The system allows for correlating the evolution of emissions with indicators such as GDP and employment.

Quarterly data do not replace the annual European inventory used to monitor climate objectives. According to the European Climate Law, the EU aims for a net reduction of emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 and achieving climate neutrality by 2050.

The results for the first quarter of 2026 show a 0.3% increase compared to the previous quarter, but a 1.2% reduction compared to the same period in 2025, while the EU's GDP grew by 0.8% in annual terms.