S&P Global Ratings will decide on Friday whether Romania will retain its investment-grade rating

S&P Global Ratings will announce its decision on Romania’s sovereign rating on Friday evening, at a time when the country holds a BBB-/A-3 rating with a negative outlook. This is the last level in the investment-grade category, and the agency is assessing whether measures to reduce the deficit are credible enough.

Interim Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare says Romania will retain its rating, citing budget execution, spending controls and the continuation of investments financed through European funds. Economist Ionuț Dumitru estimates that the deficit will fall to 6% and argues that more than half of the necessary adjustment has been achieved.

Fiscal Council President Daniel Dăianu believes that macroeconomic data do not justify a downgrade, even as political uncertainty persists. However, S&P will assess the government’s ability to continue fiscal consolidation in 2027-2028.

The decision will take into account institutional, economic, external, fiscal and monetary assessments. The agency has warned that a prolonged political deadlock or failure to attract European funds could lead to a downgrade. Citi considers it likely that the rating will be maintained for now, but sees a higher risk of a downgrade in the first quarter of 2027.