S&P begins its evaluation of Romania / Decision on maintaining the rating or downgrading it to “junk”, expected on October 2

Standard & Poor’s will begin discussions in Bucharest on Thursday, September 24, ahead of its assessment of Romania’s sovereign rating, with the decision scheduled to be announced on October 2. Romania is at the lowest investment-grade level, BBB-, with a negative outlook, and a downgrade would send the country into the “junk” category.

S&P is the last of the three major agencies to assess Romania this year. Fitch and Moody’s maintained the country’s rating but warned about the high budget deficit, political instability and rising public debt.

In its latest regional report, S&P estimates zero economic growth for Romania in 2026, a current-account deficit of 7.2% of GDP, a budget deficit of 6.3% and public debt of 61.6% of GDP. The agency anticipates that the Romanian economy will post the weakest performance in the region.

The decision comes amid a tense political context, with uncertainty over government formation and the continuation of fiscal consolidation measures. A downgrade could increase borrowing costs and prompt some investors to withdraw from the Romanian market, adding pressure to seek institutional financing, including from the IMF.