EBRD lowers Romania's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.2%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised downwards its forecast for the growth of the Romanian economy for 2026, estimating an increase of only 1.2%, compared to 1.6% previously.

The growth in 2026 and the 2.2% in 2027 are supported by the absorption of European funds, but weak external demand poses a major risk. Preliminary estimates for 2025 indicate a GDP growth of 0.9%, similar to the previous forecast, in the context of a 5% decrease in real wages.

Additionally, the fiscal deficit is expected to decrease from 9.3% to 6.2% of GDP in 2026. Inflation peaked at 9.7%, and the National Bank of Romania maintains a restrictive interest rate to combat these inflationary pressures.