EBRD has negatively revised the economic forecast for Romania, predicting a decline of 0.2% in 2026

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has significantly revised its economic forecast for Romania, anticipating a decline of 0.2% in 2026, compared to a growth of 1.2% previously estimated in February.

The 'Regional Economic Prospects' report published by the EBRD indicates an expansion of 1.8% for Romania's GDP in 2027, a decrease from the previous forecast of 2.2%. Economic growth in 2025 is estimated at 0.7%, largely similar to that of 2024, but with a modified growth structure. Private consumption has stagnated, and government spending decreased by 11% in the last quarter of 2025. Inflation accelerated, reaching 9.5% in the second half of 2025, and the National Bank of Romania maintained the interest rate at 6.5% at the beginning of 2026. The government deficit has decreased, but economic risks remain, including political uncertainties and trade volatilities.

EBRD emphasizes that public investments could support growth, but they are conditioned by the absorption of European funds.