Concerns in the oil markets after the closure of the Hormuz Strait. Oil could reach 100 dollars a barrel, triggering an energy shock similar to the 70s.

Oil prices are preparing for a possible supply shock following the US attacks on Iran, which have raised fears of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 13 million barrels of oil transit daily.

Analysts warn that tensions could escalate into a major military conflict, severely affecting oil flows from the Middle East. Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights, emphasizes that reciprocal attacks could significantly disrupt exports, unless the US neutralizes Iranian maritime capabilities. The Strait of Hormuz has become a focal point of the crisis, with the Revolutionary Guards warning commercial vessels not to cross the area. Limiting scenarios include not only the loss of Iranian exports but also a complete blockage of the maritime route, which could lead to a drastic increase in oil prices.

Brent crude closed on Sunday at $80 per barrel, with increased risks of supply disruption. Analyst Andy Lipow estimates a 33% probability that Iran will target Saudi infrastructure and completely close the Strait of Hormuz if it feels threatened.