Consequences of the US elections

The Democrats’ clear victory in the U.S. elections will have major implications, among the most important being those for foreign policy. Not, however, in the way we might expect. At least, not in foreign policy. Let me explain.

1. Democratic control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, as well as victories in gubernatorial races in which Democrats had not won for decades, are not a complete surprise in the context of previous predictions and the history of elections of this type, but the scale of the Democratic wave means a humiliating defeat for President Trump.

2. A tough political war will follow, in which the president will seek to exercise maximum authority in the areas where executive power is dominant, foreign policy being the most important and essential one for us. Therefore, we can expect unpredictable actions that would allow the president to project power and build negotiating leverage with the Democratic majority.

3. President Donald Trump will exercise his veto power to block Democratic initiatives (he can do this, and his veto can be overridden only by a two-thirds vote of the members of Congress) in the hope of reaching a compromise on certain issues.

4. The Democrats will launch a wave of investigations, but they will not be able to impeach Donald Trump. To do that, they would need a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which is impossible at this moment.

5. Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential election, Marco Rubio’s star as a Republican candidate is on the rise, in the context of the Democrats’ unexpected victory in the home state of Vice President JD Vance (the first Democrat to win there in the past 20 years) and the Republicans’ successes in Florida.

6. The Democrats will have to find a leader capable of uniting the party and tempering the aggressiveness of the radical left-wing current if they wish to win the presidential election in two years’ time.