Sweden believes that Russia may try to test NATO's commitment through a military attack in the near future. The defense committee's report emphasizes Russia's ability to conduct limited military operations.

A recent report from the Swedish parliamentary defense committee suggests that Russia may attempt to test NATO's cohesion and commitment to mutual defense through a military attack in the relatively near future. According to the report, the Kremlin may consider that "the political conditions are favorable" for such actions, even if the military balance does not meet the traditional requirements for an attack.

Previous assessments indicated that Russian forces would need years to rebuild after the war in Ukraine, but the Swedish military intelligence agency has indicated that Russia already has the capability to conduct a limited attack beyond Ukraine. The report also highlights that Russian armed forces have remained relatively unaffected by the conflict, mentioning hybrid warfare capabilities and military buildup in the Kola Peninsula and the Arctic. Additionally, the Swedish committee emphasized the changes in Europe's relationship with the U.S., characterized by unpredictability and an increased willingness to use military force unilaterally. Sweden joined NATO in 2024, together with Finland, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.