SPECIAL Informat.ro / The union from polls versus the union from reality: how close is, in fact, the Republic of Moldova to Romania

Although the latest surveys show that, on paper, the unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania would pass today at the polls, a thorough analysis shows a major gap between the enthusiasm in the numbers and the political feasibility of the project, in a society still divided and with leaders – led by Maia Sandu – who still consider EU membership a much more realistic goal in the current context dominated by the war in Ukraine and Russian pressure.

What the new survey shows and why it matters

The latest Ates Research survey, taken over by News.ro and Moldova 1, shows that if a referendum on the unification of the Republic of Moldova with Romania were to take place next Sunday, 44% of respondents in the country would vote "Yes", compared to 39.2% "No", while in the diaspora 60.8% would vote for unification and 24.3% against. Calculating the redistribution of undecided voters and those who would not participate, the authors of the research estimate that, in a valid referendum scenario, the "Yes" option would win with 55-58%. The main motivation of supporters of unification is economic: higher salaries and pensions, access to jobs in the EU, free movement, and better development prospects.

The survey also reveals an increase in Romanian national identity: nearly 15% of respondents in the Republic of Moldova identify as ethnic Romanians, while about 65% consider themselves ethnic Moldovans, with the proportion of Romanians being double in the diaspora (approximately 32%). From the language perspective, 44.2% declare that they speak Romanian and 40% "Moldovan language", while in the diaspora over 70% indicate the Romanian language, suggesting a slow but visible trend towards strengthening the Romanian identity discourse. However, the research emphasizes that the economic motivation remains dominant compared to the symbolic-identity one.

The issue of unification: realistic or rather symbolic now?

Although the survey numbers indicate, for the first time in a long time, a clear plurality of supporters of unification in the Republic of Moldova and an absolute majority in the diaspora, transforming this potential into an immediate political project remains unlikely. President Maia Sandu stated at the beginning of 2026 that, in the case of a referendum, she would vote for unification with Romania, but emphasized that, at present, there is no clear majority consolidated in society and that the strategic priority of the country is EU membership. iData director Mihai Bologan noted that just the simple statement of Maia Sandu generated an increase of about ten percentage points in the intention to vote for unification, which shows how fluid and sensitive to the political agenda this pro-union electorate is.

Meanwhile, other surveys – such as iData Barometer, cited by Euronews Romania and HotNews – indicated at the beginning of March 2026 that 42-43% of Moldovans support unification, while approximately 48-52% declare themselves against it, with about 10% undecided. This difference between measures shows that the "momentary effect", the way the question is phrased, and the political context strongly influence the responses. Sociologists like Bologan point out that a stable increase in support would require a consistent debate and technical clarifications: calendar, costs, institutional models, impact on residents of sensitive regions like Gagauzia and Transnistria.

In this context, the issue of unification currently functions mainly as a symbolic vector of identity, closeness, and pressure for accelerating support from Romania and the EU, rather than as an immediate public policy project. The statements of Maia Sandu and the leaders in Bucharest keep the subject alive, but place it within a logic of staging: first European integration, then, possibly, a practical discussion about unification "in a Europe without borders".

The position of Chișinău, Bucharest, and Moscow's reaction

Maia Sandu has described in several public interventions the relationship with Romania as a "strategic relationship", emphasizing that the partnership with Bucharest and European integration are the most realistic guarantees of security and development for the Republic of Moldova in the current context of regional instability. At the same time, she insisted that EU membership represents "the most realistic strategy for survival and development as part of the free world", stating that the window of opportunity must be exploited now, by accelerating negotiations with the 27 member states. In concrete terms, this means justice reforms, fighting corruption, and increasing institutional resilience in the face of Russian influence.

In Bucharest, the official line has remained one of priority support for the European integration of the Republic of Moldova, without aggressively pushing the unionist agenda. However, since 2014, Klaus Iohannis has spoken about a "unique relationship" between Romania and the Republic of Moldova, based on language, history, and common aspirations, insisting that the number one objective is the European integration of Chișinău and that there is no fundamental contradiction between European integration and the eventual desire for unification. In the logic of the former president, Romania has a "historical obligation" to support the Republic of Moldova on its path to the EU, and the discussion about unification must be staged and anchored in European law and in the democratic consensus from Chișinău and Bucharest. The official discourse remains cautious and in the mandate of President Nicușor Dan.

"Romania is ready for unification with the Republic of Moldova, if and when the citizens across the Prut decide this," said Dan, insisting that it is "a matter that strictly concerns the citizens of the Republic of Moldova" and that, for now, the priority assumed by Chișinău is the European path, not changing borders.

In contrast, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warns that "the plans of the Republic of Moldova to unite with Romania are destructive for the statehood of the Republic of Moldova", signaling that any potential reunification would be viewed by the Kremlin as an indirect expansion of NATO and Western influence in what Russia considers its strategic space, a message reinforced by the Russian ambassador in Bucharest, who claims that Romania "does not have the capacity" to support such a union and that the unionist narrative is politically exploited.

Maia Sandu has repeatedly warned that Russia is "more involved than people realize" in the internal affairs of the Republic of Moldova and the European Union, including through propaganda, disinformation, and support for eurosceptic and pro-Russian political parties and actors. From Moscow's perspective, unification with Romania – a NATO and EU member state – would mean the de facto expansion of Western alliance borders up to the Dniester, the loss of a strategic foothold, and the complete marginalization of its geopolitical projects in the region, which explains the critical tone towards the open support offered by Bucharest to the pro-European authorities in Chișinău.

The economic and social impact of a potential unification project

Even though the issue is currently more symbolic, a unification scenario raises very concrete economic and social questions. The Ates Research survey shows that Moldovans directly link unification to prospects for increasing pensions and salaries, easy access to the labor market in Romania and the EU, as well as improving infrastructure and public services. Experts consulted by the press in Chișinău and Bucharest point out, however, that a potential rapid alignment of the social benefits level in the Republic of Moldova to Romanian standards would have a very high budgetary cost, equivalent to several percentage points of GDP annually, which would need to be covered by a combination of economic growth, European funds, and financial transfers from the Romanian budget.

In the short term, such a transition could create social tensions, especially in regions with distinct identities – Gagauzia, UTA Gagauzia, but also in districts where pro-Russian parties still have a significant electoral base. Risks would include protests, administrative resistance, possible attempts at media and political destabilization, fueled by Russian narratives about "loss of sovereignty" and "forced Romanianization". From the same perspective, the most frequently cited disadvantages by respondents in the survey are precisely the loss of sovereignty and independence, interethnic tensions, and breaking ties with Russia.

On the other hand, unification would theoretically mean access for the entire territory of the current Republic of Moldova to the European single market under full conditions, entry under the umbrella of NATO security guarantees, and inclusion in EU-funded regional transport and energy infrastructures. Economists and analysts cited by Euronews Romania emphasize that, beyond the initial costs, economic convergence could be accelerated by investments in infrastructure, the relocation of some economic activities from Romania to the east, and the return of a part of the Moldovan diaspora to a common Romanian and European space. For this scenario to be viable, however, it would require a broad political pact, a multiannual strategy, and explicit guarantees of minority rights.

Regional context: the war in Ukraine and Russia's competition with the West

The war in Ukraine has radically transformed the context in which unification is discussed. The Russian invasion and the illegal annexation of Ukrainian territories have strengthened the perception, among a part of the Moldovan public opinion, that constitutional neutrality no longer represents a sufficient security guarantee, indirectly fueling pro-unionist and pro-European opinions. Maia Sandu has explicitly stated that a potential unification would ensure added security for both the Republic of Moldova and Romania, but insisted that, at this moment, the central objective remains European integration and strengthening the Moldovan state.

From Russia's perspective, the loss of influence in Chișinău, coupled with the advance of the Ukrainian army in the south and the strengthening of NATO presence in Romania and the Black Sea region, represents an unfavorable strategic scenario. Therefore, pressure instruments – from energy to disinformation campaigns and support for pro-Russian formations – remain active, and any discussion about unification is immediately integrated into the Kremlin's discourse about "NATO expansionism" and "encirclement of Russia". Security analysts in the region note that a unification project, if launched now, would have a geopolitical impact comparable to NATO and EU expansions in the 2000s, which would inevitably turn it into a subject of negotiation – or confrontation – between great powers.

For the European Union, the Republic of Moldova file is currently a priority in the context of eastern expansion, but does not explicitly include the scenario of unification with Romania as a quick solution. The European Parliament has welcomed Chișinău's progress and called for the acceleration of the negotiation process, betting on the internal strengthening of the Moldovan state, not on an immediate redefinition of borders. In this architecture, the issue of unification plays more of a role as a "historical and identity background", legitimizing the accelerated rapprochement between Bucharest and Chișinău, without yet translating into a concrete political calendar.

In this framework, the issue of unification is today more than just a simple symbol, as it is supported by a sociological basis in growth and by a regional context that carries geopolitical weight; but it is less than an immediately realizable project, as there is still no solid internal consensus in Chișinău, nor an assumed strategy in Bucharest and the EU regarding the concrete steps of such a process.

*****Synthesis made with the help of a data monitoring flow provided by the media monitoring platform NewsVibe Romania. The analysis, data, and images presented have been enhanced with the help of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence tools.