NATO warns that Europe could run out of fuel for military aircraft in a future major conflict

NATO could face a major shortage of jet fuel in the event of a large-scale conflict in Europe, according to a study published in September by the Alliance’s Energy Security Centre of Excellence. Researchers warn that military demand could exceed available supplies over the next decade, especially in a scenario involving the activation of Article 5 and the deployment of North American forces.

The study shows that the energy transition, reduced refining capacity and the closure of several European refineries have created vulnerabilities for defense. Approximately a quarter of the continent’s refineries have ceased operations since 2009, and Europe now has around 70 facilities capable of producing aviation fuel.

In an unfavorable scenario, the system could reach its limits by the mid-2030s. Even commandeering all fuel available to the civilian sector would leave an estimated shortfall of 4.7 million tonnes from 2035, potentially rising to 50 million tonnes by 2050.

Researchers recommend maintaining refineries, expanding strategic reserves, developing alternative fuels, diversifying imports and reducing military consumption. The study does not represent NATO’s official position, although similar warnings have also been issued by Secretary General Mark Rutte.