AIE warns that the diesel shortage could persist until the second half of 2027, amid conflicts and low stocks

The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the global diesel shortage could persist until the second half of 2027, after conflicts in the Middle East and Russia reduced exports while global stocks continue to decline. The situation is putting pressure on prices, inflation and economic growth.

Combined diesel exports from Russia and the Middle East fell by 1.3 million barrels per day in September, equivalent to approximately 4.5% of global demand for diesel and heating fuel. Stocks declined during a period when they would normally have been expected to rise ahead of the cold season.

Diesel refining margins reached nearly $95 per barrel in September, a record level, and stood at $85.42 on Wednesday. The IEA estimates that refinery output will recover toward the end of the year, but the shortage of middle distillates, a category that includes diesel and aviation fuel, will keep pressure on the market in the first half of 2027.

IEA member countries have agreed to release 426 million barrels from strategic reserves, of which approximately 100 million still need to be delivered. The agency warns, however, that attacks on energy infrastructure and oil traffic in the Middle East could cause further disruptions. A potential oil surplus in 2027 would not quickly eliminate tensions in the diesel market because of low stocks and limited refining capacity.