3 hours ago

Researchers estimate that Super El Niño could cause 857,000 heat-related deaths by March 2027

Riana Gegiu

30 October 2026, 12:26

Environment

Foto: Shutterstock.com

Always see our news on Google

Super El Niño could cause approximately 857,000 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and March 2027, according to an estimate by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago. The calculation is included in the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker and compares the projected toll with that of a typical year.

Researchers estimate that 484,500 deaths have already occurred between June and September, while approximately 372,900 more could take place over the next six months. Nigeria and India are considered the hardest-hit countries during this period, with more than 56,000 and approximately 55,000 estimated deaths, respectively. Over the entire period, India could record around 160,000 deaths, followed by China with 85,400, Nigeria with 69,700, and Sudan with 53,200.

The three countries with the highest estimates would account for more than one-third of the toll. Researchers stress that this year's record heatwaves are linked to global warming, not directly to the El Niño phenomenon, whose strongest effects usually occur from late autumn through winter.

Super El Niño can bring rain and storms to the United States, South America, and Europe, but also severe drought to Australia, Indonesia, and South Asia. In its usual form, the phenomenon occurs every two to seven years, while the super variant occurs every 10 to 15 years.

業

Context: WMO/WHO warn that El Niño is intensifying and risks increasing pressure on health and food security

Before the assessments on the impact of heat, the World Meteorological Organization announced that El Niño will intensify in the coming months, with a possibility of reaching its peak in December, and is expected to persist until February 2027 (probability close to 100%). At the same time, the equatorial Pacific Ocean has exceeded the 30°C threshold, and researchers have described the formation of a “Super El Niño,” with the core of the very warm waters moving toward the central Pacific.

On the health front, the World Health Organization and WMO have urged healthcare systems to prepare in advance for the likely effects — extreme heat, drought, floods, and fires — through disease surveillance and plans for a rapid response. Separately, the World Food Programme warned that a more intense El Niño could push nearly 49 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.