WMO announces that the El Niño phenomenon will intensify through December and warns of drought, floods and record temperatures

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that the El Niño phenomenon will intensify in the coming months and could peak in December, persisting until February 2027. The UN agency estimates that the current episode could be one of the most intense recorded since 1950.

Temperatures at the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean rose from 1.6 degrees Celsius above average in June 2026 to 2.5 degrees in August. For the October–December period, the figure is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees, exceeding the previous record of 2.6 degrees, set between November 2015 and January 2016.

According to the WMO, the probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027 is close to 100%. The phenomenon can cause above-average temperatures in numerous regions and alter precipitation patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo explains that El Niño releases the heat already accumulated in the ocean. Since the ocean is at its highest thermal level ever observed, the phenomenon may contribute to another exceptionally warm year.

The effects are already visible in Central America and India, where drought and disruption of the monsoon are affecting agriculture and livestock.