Analysis. Scenarios in the second round of the presidential elections by Remus Ștefureac for Politico

After the ultra-nationalist candidate supported by Moscow, Călin Georgescu, was disqualified from the elections, George Simion, leader of the AUR party, is the favorite to qualify for the second round of the presidential elections to be held in May in Romania. The polls point to three other candidates with a chance of qualifying for the second round - Nicușor Dan, Crin Antonescu and Victor Ponta - to qualify for the first round of the presidential election.

Simion has support in small towns, rural areas and the diaspora, but his pro-Russian reputation could hurt him. Dan is strong in Bucharest but unknown in the rest of the country. Ponta has a broad base and can attract Simion and Georgescu voters. Antonescu has the support of the main parties but loses in the diaspora. In the second round, each candidate has distinct advantages and vulnerabilities and the races are tight.