The World Bank anticipates a 24% increase in energy prices by 2026

The World Bank (WB) has published a report indicating that commodity prices could rise significantly if hostilities in the region intensify and supply disruptions last longer than current estimates.

The WB's baseline scenario forecasts a gradual return of volumes transiting through the Strait of Hormuz by October, but the risks of rising prices remain. Projections show a 16% increase in commodity prices by 2026, influenced by rising energy, fertilizer, and metal prices. The WB estimates that the price of Brent crude will reach 86 dollars per barrel this year, with the possibility of hitting 115 dollars if the region's infrastructure is affected.

The chief economist of the WB, Indermit Gill, emphasizes the negative impact on the global economy, with effects on inflation and challenges for developing countries.

Fertilizer prices will increase by 31% by 2026, which will affect food supply and farmers' incomes.

The inflation rate in developed economies could reach 5.1%, while in developing countries it could reach 5.8% in the baseline scenario.

Global economic growth will also be affected, with an estimated advance of only 3.6% for developing countries.