Romania risks a diesel shortage as it enters winter with the most expensive diesel in history / The price has increased by almost 40% compared with January (Frames analysis)

Romania risks entering the winter with a diesel shortage amid record fuel price increases and vulnerable supply routes, according to a Frames analysis. On October 22, diesel cost an average of 10.90 lei per liter, approximately 38% more than in January.

The new finding highlighted by analysts is that the officially announced 90-day reserves do not represent three months of consumption at the pump. Of the approximately 2.04 million tonnes, more than half consists of crude oil and feedstock for refining, while only around 511,000 tonnes is diesel. In addition, approximately half of the stocks are located in other European states and could reach Romania within 20–40 days.

The global diesel crisis, fueled by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on oil infrastructure and high transport costs, could last until 2027. Romania imports around three-quarters of its oil needs, while diesel consumption exceeds domestic production.

A shortage lasting a few days could halt transport, agriculture and construction sites, affecting food prices. Frames is calling on the Government to diversify imports, transparently verify stocks and provide targeted support to transport operators and farmers.