The IMF has lowered the economic growth forecast for Romania for 2026 to 0.7%, estimating an average inflation of 7.8% and an unemployment rate of 6%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has drastically revised its economic growth forecast for Romania, now estimating an expansion of only 0.7% for the year 2026, compared to the previously forecasted 1.4%. According to the IMF report, the Romanian economy entered technical recession in the second half of the year, recording two consecutive quarters of decline.

Additionally, the IMF has revised its inflation estimates upwards, predicting an average rate of 7.8% in 2026, compared to 6.7% in the previous forecast. The unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 6% in 2026, 0.2 percentage points higher than previous estimates.

However, the IMF anticipates a significant recovery of the Romanian economy in 2027, with a growth of 2.5%. INS data indicates a real advance of 0.7% for last year, after a growth of 0.9% in 2024.