Remus Ștefureac, INSCOP director: A PNL-USR alliance could become a benchmark for 2028

The Director of INSCOP Research estimates that a potential PNL-USR alliance has significant electoral potential, but warns that the outcome depends on how the political project is built. He believes that part of the AUR electorate is moderate and may shift toward a credible alternative.

A potential PNL-USR alliance would receive, according to an INSCOP poll cited by Remus Ștefureac in an interview for Aktual24, approximately 32% of voting intentions, three percentage points behind AUR. Remus Ștefureac, Director of INSCOP Research, considers this a “good potential” for a hypothetical political formula, which could become a major reference point for the 2028 elections if the formation process is not marked by crises and internal conflicts.

AUR, vulnerable to voter migration

Ștefureac explains AUR’s recent decline, to 34–35%, by the PSD’s return to government, which would have prompted some former social-democratic voters to return to the party. He emphasizes, however, that the trend may be temporary, and AUR could regain ground if the government is perceived as ineffective amid the economic crisis and inflation.

According to the analyst, the AUR electorate is not entirely radicalized: a significant part consists of citizens dissatisfied with the way the country is governed, corruption, the unfair distribution of resources, and the perception that Romania is not sufficiently defending its interests within the European Union. If PNL, USR, or other formations offer a credible alternative, some of this moderate electorate could shift away from AUR.

PSD-AUR and a potential opposing bloc

The rapprochement between PSD and AUR in Parliament could, paradoxically, be unfavorable to George Simion’s party, Ștefureac believes. Former PSD voters who switched to AUR might perceive cooperation between the two formations as a validation of PSD and could return to their original party.

If a reformist bloc takes shape around PNL, USR, and possibly Forța Dreptei, the analyst does not rule out the emergence of an opposing bloc based on PSD and AUR. However, he recalls that the Romanian electorate has tended to balance the concentration of power, making political developments difficult to predict.

President, polls, and the EU

Trust in President Nicușor Dan has declined compared with the time of the elections, but according to INSCOP, it stands at 16–18%, not 10%, as some comments have suggested. Ștefureac attributes the erosion to the association of leaders with governing during a period of economic and political crises.

Regarding relations with the EU, he argues that Euroscepticism has risen slightly, but not decisively: approximately 25% of Romanians would support the idea of a “Ro-Exit,” while more than 70% remain committed to the European project. Even among the AUR electorate, more than 60% are committed to the European idea, which, in his view, contradicts the party’s anti-EU rhetoric.

Polls as a tool of manipulation

Ștefureac criticizes the use of polls as a political weapon and recommends that the media not publish unattributed research without specifying the institute and the entity that commissioned it. He maintains that transparency regarding the commissioner is essential for the credibility of the measurements and for limiting manipulation.