The censorship potion

On May 19, INSCOP presented to the public another segment from the latest barometer of informat.ro. A package of questions about the perception of the political situation in the country, centered around the famous motion of censure. I remember that on Monday, a day before, our data regarding the political preferences of the public from our beautiful and great republic surfaced, and some were upset that PNL was in second place. This is not the first time INSCOP is somewhat against the current, nor the first time it is right. Plus, the political market is quite volatile these days... so why all the anger?

The public's perception regarding the motion of censure also explains why the logic of apparent common sense of some is relatively incorrect. People are dissatisfied with Bolojan, so PSD has something to gain. Partially correct, partially incorrect. First of all, we need to see who the people are. Different segments of the public are different worlds. Next, part of the PNL public, previously dissatisfied with Bolojan's governance, may have seen PSD's action as a kind of betrayal of the political understanding after the 2024 elections and may have re-solidarized with its old political preference. Others did not like the PSD-AUR association, as long as it lasted. The question how does PNL grow when people are dissatisfied with the government?... is somewhat incorrect. First of all, PNL was in government with PSD, and its subsequent withdrawal from the coalition may not have left everyone with a good impression. Percentages rise and fall not only through the transfer of voters from one party to another but also through mobilizations or demobilizations of specific publics, depending on the behavior of the parties at different moments and political crises.

Then, the discussion is not about governance. It is about the motion through which PSD detached itself from the coalition (the public's appreciation remains to be seen), but it is also about the fact that three weeks after the motion, it is still unclear where a government will come from, and this may concern people more than the pride of PSD and PNL... Let's not forget the historical delay of the budget for 2026. It is one thing to discuss it on political principles in February, another to find that certain payments or investments are blocked until June because the delayed budget has not been approved by some agency. And it remains to be seen what the public retained from the budget saga: some will remember that Bolojan's government delayed it. Others that PSD dragged its feet to put the government in difficulty. Others that PSD tried to negotiate to allocate more money for certain vulnerable categories. Some will think that it's good. Others that it's not. Etc. The public becomes capricious when it starts to feel the effects of major political decisions. La donna e mobile, as a classic aria says...

Overall, I won't say that the situation in which the two largest parties in the country are arguing like in kindergarten, which is in the polls in second place and which in third: "Madam, I have 20%, they have 18... they copied from me..." is tragic.

There will be no heroes after this motion. Any responsible politician knows that parliamentary math and electoral math (by the way regarding early elections) do not help us. The polarization that has split Romania in half is also visible here. Somewhat unexpectedly, because it shows us that it is no longer just about the austerity that has upset the people. 48-49% of Romanians believe that the motion was a useless act and will complicate things, while 44% believe it was a necessary and good political act. The bet on the motion does not seem to be going that brilliantly. This match, from the perspective of public opinion, a match that we hope will reach a result as soon as possible, is between austerity and uncertainty. Hard to say which is more bearable. And if the motion of censure was meant to be a kind of magic potion against austerity, let's see how we deal with uncertainty.